Thursday, April 16, 2020

Keep Your Eyes on the Moving Line...or Don't

They just threw out May 15 as a time when they may consider open the schools, or something like that. But we have heard that before.

They have moved the line up a week and I guess I should be grateful they are not moving it up even more. I have heard from someone in the medical field that the coronavirus seems to have two nasty strains: one that hits your lungs and make you sick and another that does that plus attacks your kidneys and liver. They have no idea why. Lovely.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that this issue going to go on for some time and it is going to get messy. There are parts of the US that are angry at being asked to not go out. I am not going to talk about personal freedom, as that gets very messy, very fast. All I shall say about this situation is this: you don't just hurt yourself, you hurt, or even kill, others who did not wish to take the risk you chose to take. The people in the places that do not wish to stay in place are placing themselves in great risk. Personally, I have had to see news footage of bodies being placed in refrigerated trucks in a city 36 miles from where I live and that sobered me up. As Camus said in "The Plague", "In short, they were gambling on their luck, and luck is not to be coerced."

The unemployment numbers are through the roof. Apparently the stock market is rising, in part, because the number of unemployed are not as high as expected. (sigh) The economy of the world is going to be a mess for some time to come. The money that is being sent out now is not going to last long and if food gets more expensive and harder to get, things will most likely get nasty like they always do in this sort of situation. While the wonderful group mentality of being there for each other while we are all in the same boat, there always comes a tipping point that is bad. May it not get there, but if it does, may it be brief and not messy.

I am unsure as to what is going to happen to small businesses. It does not look good. The bigger companies can most likely get cash at the non-existent interest rates via the Fed. But the economy is going to just scream in pain with the slightest turn of the nozzle on what normal used to be. We are all at the first moment of this radically bonkers economic world. I am not very hopeful, but maybe I am just in a bad mood because I didn't sleep as much as I wanted.

As a Musician, I have no idea when there will be any money for the working Musician. Follow my logic here: Musicians are paid via what the bar (or restaurant, but mostly bar) makes. What they make is based on attendance. Even if the bars open, people will not be flooding the spaces, not to mention there will most likely still be social distancing. Attendance will be down. So, where's the money to pay the band? Oh, wait, I understand the concept of playing for free. Okay, fine. We all just go out and play for free... AGAIN.  Less places will be open so now the insane amount of cover bands that were out there will all be competing to the death for a gig. Cover bands make money, unknown original Music does not. The cover bands get the gigs. But, and hear me out on this, I believe we are burning a great deal of nostalgia as fuel right now and looking back on the past with fondness will take some time. Yes, the mega-bands like The Rolling Stones and U2 will still tour after the green light is given, and I am sure they will get the insane amount of money per ticket that they always have, even if the economy is in a Depression. But it will take some time before original Music has even the slightest chance to be at the local level. The scene was already financially dead before this, so, unless there is an amazing change of perspective in the culture, I cannot see a resurrection.

But, it is a beautiful day and I received a personal letter in the mail. The coffee, while made yesterday, is still good and strong. And I can write. So, there is some good, and with it some hope, no?

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